研究

The changing demographics of retail investors

2024年5月23日

发现

开放

Access to financial markets can have a material impact on the financial health trajectory of families and individuals seeking to build wealth. In aggregate and over the long run, financial assets have offered solid returns in exchange for accepting market volatility. Alongside a decline in the cost of retail investing in recent years, 金融市场投资已经从一项由高收入个人主导的活动扩大到一个具有更广泛基础的活动.1 Market commentators and other researchers have cited increased access to information, 减低交易佣金, and social media networks as contributing to the demographic trends.2

本报告通过按年龄划分的活动特征，对最近零售投资的扩大提供了更全面的看法, 性别, 和种族. Demographic attributes may correlate income growth and liquidity—two features of financial flexibility that predict investing transactions.3 Each of the population subgroups we study increased their transfers to investment accounts out of their take-home income as of 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels, and each group experienced a peak during the pandemic-era savings boom.

更高频率的投资动态揭示了大流行期间某些群体之间的行为差异. Transfers from checking accounts to investment accounts of younger individuals and men increased more aggressively around the historic March 2020 volatility in stocks and during a stimulus-driven investing fad in early 2021. 在最近的美国.S. 商业周期, 男性和年轻人通过劳动收入暴露在经济风险中的比例过高, 根据学术研究.4 The relative increase in exposure to financial market risk of the same groups may amplify negative outcomes in the case of prolonged downturns in markets and the economy. Future crises may feature analogous investing behavior, and a sharp rebound—as experienced in the wake of the pandemic—is not guaranteed.

We base our analysis  on a sample of over 10 million active checking account users spanning 2008 to 2023. We use transfers from checking accounts to external investment accounts to identify investing transactions.5 Taking differences by age, 性别, 和种族6 反过来，我们发现以下内容:

发现1. 过去10年，40岁以下个人每月将资金转移到投资领域的比例增加了两倍以上, outstripping increases for those 40 and over.

发现2. Peaks in market volatility in 2020 and a fiscal stimulus-fueled investing surge in early 2021 were associated with a temporary increase in the share of investment transfers for men.

发现3. The share of Black and Hispanic individuals transferring money to investment accounts increased relative to White individuals over the past decade and peaked around the timing of pandemic-era fiscal stimulus.

参与金融投资的决定涉及一系列可能与所考虑的人口群体有关的因素. Having the financial flexibility to generate savings is essential, as indicated by the roles of income growth and liquidity highlighted in the prior 研究所 report.

Decision makers and industry practitioners can use this report’s findings to gauge the evolving population investing through brokerage accounts and consider the results in understanding the needs and recent behaviors of investors, particularly new entrants to the market.

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过去10年，40岁以下个人每月将资金转移到投资领域的比例增加了两倍以上, outstripping increases for those 40 and over.

Younger individuals have been increasingly engaged with investing in recent years, at least in terms of putting after-tax discretionary money to work in financial markets. Following the global financial crisis, the share of adults investing was about the same among working-age adults above and below 40 years old, 分别. By 2019, the younger age group’s annual investing share had more than tripled, compared to a 60 percent increase for 40 plus. And the spike in 2021 relative to 2019 was twice as large in percentage point terms for those under 40 years old compared with the 40 and over group. 截至去年, the investing share for the below and above 40 groups settled at about 9 percent and 14 percent, 分别.

Figure 1: Growth in investment account use has been more pronounced for those under 40 years old.

该图是一个柱状图，显示了2010- 2015年个人向投资账户转移资金的比例

该图是一个柱状图，显示了2010- 2015年(年平均值)个人向投资账户转移资金的比例。, 2019, 2021, 和2023年. The plot breaks out individuals by two age groups: forty and higher versus below 40. The y-axis is scaled so that the 2010-15 average is 100, which is indicated as 3.6 percent for the forty plus group and 4.40岁以下人群占3%. The bars for both age subsets rise in 2019, rise further in 2021 and fall somewhat from the 2021 peak in 2023 but remaining notably higher than 2019. While these shifts are directionally the same for both groups, the moves are larger for the below 40 group, leaving them at a level of over 300 compared with under 250 for the 40 plus group.

The rise of younger investors followed a nonlinear path during the pandemic. 图2描述了相对于40岁以上的人，年轻人投资比例的暂时激增. 从2020年初开始, 40岁以下的个人投资人数急剧上升，在2021年1月和2月达到顶峰. This timing coincided with widespread reports of social-media-driven retail investing fads that included concentrated positions in single stocks.

图2:在大流行期间，进行投资的年轻人数量偶尔激增.

Scatter plot with time as the x-axis and ratio of under 40-year-olds investing to over-40

散点图，x轴为时间，y轴为40岁以下人群与40岁以上人群的投资比率(parity = 100). The time spans 2018 through August 2023. 2010- 2015年的平均比率和2019年的平均比率用虚线表示，分别略高于100和略低于160, 分别. The dots trend upward slightly from 2018 through the end of 2019. March 2020, 哪个在文本中被调用, shows a sharp jump upward to over 200. The data fluctuate around this level until peaking in January and February 2021, 它们也被标记为. The series then declines and stabilizes at about 170 somewhat above the 2019 average ratio.
01

Peaks in market volatility in 2020 and a fiscal stimulus-fueled investing surge in early 2021 were associated with a temporary increase in the share of investment transfers for men.

先前的研究发现，男性更有可能使用投资账户来节省税后收入, our data extend the analysis to the pandemic era.7 图3显示了活跃支票账户用户样本中男性和女性每年向投资账户转移资金的比例.

Figure 3: Investing rates increased for both men and women since prior to the pandemic, with a somewhat larger increase for men in 2021.

该图是一个柱状图，显示了2010- 2015年个人向投资账户转移资金的比例

该图是一个柱状图，显示了2010- 2015年(年平均值)个人向投资账户转移资金的比例。, 2019, 2021, 和2023年. The plot breaks out individuals by Female and Male groups. The y-axis is scaled so that the 2010-15 average is 100, which is indicated as 3.女性占1%，女性占4%.男性占7%. The bars for both 性别 subsets rise in 2019, rise further in 2021 and fall somewhat from the 2021 peak in 2023 but remaining notably higher than 2019. While these shifts are directionally the same for both groups, the increase in 2021 was somewhat larger for men. Both groups were a bit below 300 as of 2023.

放大到每月视图, 我们可以看到，在大流行期间，针对特定市场和社会事件的投资存在明显的性别差异.8 March 2020 was one of the most volatile months for the stock market in decades, as prices reacted to the pandemic economic disruption. 的年代&P 500 declined by as much as one-third from February 19 to March 23, 2020. This was paired with a large spike in the savings rate, which increased the amount of investable funds. That March, the share of women investing fell from a recent average of about 70 per 100 men, to 57. 在大流行的后期, 在2021年的前几个月，政府的额外刺激措施和新投资者的兴趣上升同时出现, and the share of women making new investments fell to below 55 per 100. The increase in men investing was a temporary phenomenon during the pandemic. The ratio of women-to-men making investments gradually recovered to the 2019 average ratio by late 2022, albeit still well below parity or even the decade-ago average.

图4. 在大流行时期金融动荡的特定时期，男性明显比女性更积极地进行投资.

Scatter plot with time as the x-axis and ratio of women investing to men

Scatter plot with time as the x-axis and ratio of women investing to men (parity = 100) on the y-axis. The time spans 2018 through August 2023. 2010- 2015年的平均比率和2019年的平均比率用虚线表示，分别略高于70和略低于70, 分别. The dots trend slightly down from 2018 through the end of 2019. 2020年3月, 哪个在文本中被调用, there is a sharp jump downward to a little above 55 before partially rebounding. The series dips again in January and February 2021, 它们也被标记为, to a little below 55. The series then steadily climbs back to the 2019 ratio by late 2022, stabilizing at that ratio.
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The share of Black and Hispanic individuals transferring money to investment accounts increased relative to White individuals over the past decade and peaked around the timing of pandemic-era fiscal stimulus.

Black and Hispanic individuals’ transfers of funds to investment accounts increased on an absolute and relative basis over the past decade, 如图5所示. In terms of the annual share of individuals transferring money to investment accounts, the rate for Black and Hispanic individuals increased to over 3 times the 2010-15 average as of 2023, compared to a little over 2 times for White and Asian. In 2023, the share of Black and Hispanic individuals making investment transfers had fallen notably from its 2021 peak but remained significantly above pre-pandemic levels. 按种族划分的投资转移趋势反映了在收入增长分配中观察到的动态. 这是, 2016 - 2021年, Black and Hispanic individuals’ incomes experienced relative gains, which fell from stimulus-fueled peaks in 2022-23.9

图5:2016年至2021年，与白人相比，黑人和西班牙裔个人的投资扩张更为明显, 按百分比计算.

该图是一个柱状图，显示了2010- 2015年个人向投资账户转移资金的比例

该图是一个柱状图，显示了2010- 2015年(年平均值)个人向投资账户转移资金的比例。, 2019, 2021, 和2023年. The plot breaks out individuals by race groups: Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White. The y-axis is scaled so that the 2010-15 average is 100, which is indicated as 7.9%的亚洲人，2%.黑人的支持率为4%.西班牙裔为0%，4%.白人占8%. The bars for each race rise in 2019, rise further in 2021 and fall somewhat from the 2021 peak in 2023 but remaining notably higher than 2019. While these shifts are directionally the same for all race groups, the moves are larger for the Black and Hispanic groups and leaves these bars at a level of over 300 compared with under 250 for Asian and White groups.

Even after the progress over the last decade, 黑人和西班牙裔个人在进行此类投资的人口中所占的比例仍然很小. 此外, the more volatile pandemic-era rise and fall of these racial groups’ investing activities suggests potential vulnerability to temporary asset price shocks. 这是, 长期稳定的投资有助于减少市场波动对投资业绩的潜在影响, 而集中及时购买则增加了临时价格波动降低投资回报的可能性.

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结论与启示

Summary

与5年前或10年前相比，持有经纪账户的投资者不太可能是白人，更可能是40岁以下的人. Women have maintained a roughly constant share of the investing population on net, notwithstanding short-term fluctuations. 锋利的, temporary increases in the relative number of younger investors and men transferring money into investment accounts during acute phases of the pandemic-era market volatility suggest a potential high degree of heterogeneity in investing patterns during times of heightened uncertainty.

影响

本报告提出的趋势反映了大流行时期独特的经济环境(如.g., excess savings and fiscal stimulus), social-median-driven investing fads, and a changing investment platform landscape. With respect to wealth accumulation dynamics, demographic shifts have been stark. In addition to prior 研究所 findings10 involving trend-chasing in stock and crypto markets—apparent differences in use of financial investment accounts across population subgroups during the pandemic may inform policymakers seeking to understand and adapt to a changing retail investing landscape. New market entrants may provide a potential opportunity for innovations in financial education, and effective solutions are unlikely to be one-size-fits-all.

Relative increases of market risk-taking around pockets of extreme market volatility for men and younger individuals may suggest that future crises could feature pockets of “doubling down” of risk-taking at a time when those individuals’ jobs may be more at risk.11 大流行期间, a strong government response—both fiscal and monetary—supported a rapid rebound that insulated individuals who added market risk in March 2020 (事后 a likely fruitful move): job security improved to historically favorable levels by mid-2021 and the stock market had recouped losses even earlier.12 The prolonged downturn of the Great Recession illustrates a counterpoint that may have carried less favorable outcomes for analogous investing behavior.13

来源

Guvenen, Fatih, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song, and Motohiro Yogo. “Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk.” 《澳博体育app》 107, no. 5 (2017): 398–403. http://doi.org/10.1257 /爱尔兰.p20171094.

参考文献

1.

见研究所报告"The Rise in Retail Investing: Roles of the Economic Cycle and Income Growth(Wheat and Eckerd 2024)

2.

参见 《澳博体育app》 文章。”More Americans Than Ever Own Stocks(2023年12月)及Black Investors Are the Biggest New Group of Stock Buyers(2024年1月).

3.

As discussed in Wheat and Eckerd (2024).

4.

In analysis based on large-scale earnings data of U.S. 个体，Guvenen等人. (2017) measure average earnings sensitivity by income and demographic groups. 整个收入分配, men and younger individuals’ earnings fluctuate more widely alongside nationwide economic growth, as seen in Figure 1 of that paper.

5.

As discussed in Wheat and Eckerd (2024).

6.

Self-identified demographic data was obtained in 2021 from a third party for the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 to conduct economic research examining financial outcomes by race, 种族, 和性别. The demographic data was matched to internal banking records using encrypted quasi-identifiers. 这个包含银行记录和人口统计数据的去识别文件只对澳博官方网站app研究所开放.

7.

见研究所报告"的年代tock Market and Household Financial Behavior(2021年1月).

8.

请注意, differences in the frequency of investment transfers may drive a gap between the yearly figures for investing shares (Figure 3) relative to the monthly view (图4).

9.

见研究所报告"Racial Income Inequality Dynamics” (2022).

10.

如研究所报告所述: 的年代tock Market and Household Financial Behavior (2021)和 The Dynamics and Demographics of U.S. 家庭加密资产使用 (2023).

11.

正如Guven等人所讨论的. (2017) these groups face greater sensitivity of their labor earnings to economic growth.

12.

在2021年5月进一步改善之前，失业与空缺比率大约达到了2019年底的水平(弗雷德联系).

13.

例如, after the Great Recession the unemployment rate did not recover to its 2007 low until 2017 (弗雷德联系), and the rate for men rose by as much as 30 percent more than women in 2009 (弗雷德联系). Meanwhile, stock indices took several years to return to their 2007 levels.

致谢

We thank our research team, for their work and contribution to this research. 另外, 我们感谢伊丽莎白·埃利斯, 罗伯特·考德威尔, 奥斯卡克鲁兹, 阿方索Zenteno, and Annabel Jouard for their support. 我们感谢我们的内部合作伙伴和同事，并感谢他们对每个和所有版本的贡献.

We would like to acknowledge Jamie Dimon, CEO of 澳博官方网站app & Co., for his vision and leadership in establishing the 研究所 and enabling the ongoing research agenda. We remain deeply grateful to Peter Scher, 副主席, 蒂姆·贝瑞, 企业责任主管, 希瑟Higginbottom, 研究主管, 政策, & 的见解, and others across the firm for the resources and support to pioneer a new approach to contribute to global economic analysis and insight.

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建议引用

小麦，克里斯和乔治·埃克德. 2024. “The changing demographics of retail investors.澳博官方网站app研究所. http://dmllpg.malizik-label.net/institute/research/financial-markets/the-changing-demographics-of-retail-investors

作者

克里斯小麦

President, JP摩根追逐研究所

乔治Eckerd

金融市场研究主管

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